US core PCE inflation rises to 3.2% as Q1 GDP growth slows; jobless claims hit decades-low
Fresh US data showed core PCE inflation at 3.2% year over year in March while first-quarter GDP growth came in softer than expected, complicating the Fed’s outlook even as initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since 1969.
US markets were forced to weigh conflicting macro signals on Thursday after a cluster of economic releases showed inflation staying sticky while growth and labor-market data pointed in different directions.
**Inflation (PCE):** The Commerce Department’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price report showed **core PCE** (excluding food and energy) rising **0.3% month over month**, lifting the **12‑month rate to 3.2%**. Headline PCE rose more sharply on the month as energy-related components climbed.
**Growth (GDP):** Separately, the Commerce Department’s first estimate of **Q1 GDP** put growth at a **2.0% annualized pace**, below expectations and highlighting a slower trajectory for demand despite ongoing investment tied to artificial intelligence and data-center buildouts.
**Labor (jobless claims):** In the same morning, the Labor Department reported **initial jobless claims of 189,000** for the week ended April 25, a sharp decline versus the prior week and well below consensus forecasts. The print marked the lowest level since **September 1969**, underscoring a “low-hire, low-fire” labor market.
### Why it matters for stocks
For equity investors, the mix of data tends to create a tug-of-war between:
- **Higher-for-longer rate risk** (inflation remains above target), and
- **Soft-landing hopes** (growth is positive and layoffs remain limited).
The releases followed the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision a day earlier to **hold rates steady**, with notable dissent that suggested internal debate on the path of policy.
### What to watch next
Traders will likely focus on:
- Whether upcoming inflation prints confirm the re-acceleration in core pressures,
- The trajectory of consumer spending (particularly as energy costs rise), and
- Fed communications for any shift in tone around the timing of future cuts.
*Draft for Kicukiro Tech; add market-level quotes (S&P 500/Nasdaq/Dow reaction, yields, and dollar) once end-of-day pricing is finalized.*
Source: CNBC